Wednesday, June 10, 2009

The magic question – what will happen to the market after September?

Ahhhh, if only I had a crystal ball…

For those who haven’t heard, the Federal Government has announced that it will phase out the First Home Buyer Boost, starting with a 50% reduction to $3500 after September 30th 2009 and ending completely on December 31st 2009.

From my observations of recent buyer behaviour, I believe the bonus has motivated many people who were simply thinking of buying to actually get out and buy. However, a lot of first home buyers I speak to are happy to wait till after the bonus starts to shrink before they buy. So I am not sure we will see a sudden decline of buyers out there after September.

On the bright side for buyers, there is usually a lot more property available as vendors often decide to list their properties in spring. Increased stock levels usually have a dampening effect on price growth.

Even if the first home buyer segment of the market grinds to a halt, the flow-on effect will continue for some time as many of those sellers are now buyers upgrading to their second home, and so on.

Overall, it is hard to speculate as there are so many other factors in play at the moment, for instance, low interest rates, talk of recession and job insecurity… Just try to get two economists to agree on the property market outlook!

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